Transcript — Friday, May 8, 2026

Researcher slate

See slates/slate-2026-05-08.md for full output. Five games:

• NYK @ PHI (NBA, East Semis G3)
• SAS @ MIN (NBA, West Semis G3)
• MTL @ BUF (NHL, East 2nd Round G2)
• VGK @ ANA (NHL, West 2nd Round G3)
• STL @ SD (MLB, Apple TV game of the week)

ESPN BPI available for both NBA games; no external model for NHL or MLB.

Round 1 — Voting council

The Sharp

• BUF -1.5 +192 LowVig.ag (medium). Cross-book dispersion screaming on the puck line — FanDuel +172, DK/MGM +185, BetRivers +175, LowVig +192. 20-cent shop on the same side. Reverse line value play.
• PHI -1.5 -106 LowVig.ag (medium). Embiid didn’t appear in G2 box but PHI still pricing as -120 home favorite — market expects him back or doesn’t care. -1.5 at -106 vs -110/-114 elsewhere is the shop. Public on the road dog up 2-0.
• SD -1.5 +147 LowVig.ag (low). Number-shopping play. 8 cents matters.
• Pass SAS/MIN (line moved past BPI on Edwards news), pass VGK/ANA (BetRivers spread inversion = wait).

The Quant

• PASS THE SLATE. Honest pass.
• NYK/PHI: BPI 64.7% NYK vs market implies 49.2% — 15.4-pp gap is artifact, BPI season-trained and blind to today’s injuries. No convergence partner.
• SAS/MIN: -4.5 pp anti-convergence (market more bullish than BPI). Pass dressed as lean.
• NHL × 2 + MLB: no model signal, nothing to triangulate. Tight cross-book dispersion = no structural read on the NHL games.
• Card: zero plays. “Honest pass beats forced action when convergence isn’t there.”

The Contrarian

• NYK +1.5 (HIGH). Public is laying on PHI without Embiid. Brunson hunts Maxey on switches; Embiid in a hoodie. Free half-point on the road favorite-in-disguise.
• UNDER 216.5 SAS/MIN (HIGH). Public saw 133 and thinks track meet. It’s not — Edwards limited, Gobert benched, Finch yelling about defensive identity. G3 after 38-pt home loss is the most predictable slow-down spot.
• UNDER 5.5 MTL/BUF (medium). Puck-line juice is the trap; Under is the cleaner play.
• Pass VGK/ANA, pass MLB.

The Situationalist

• NYK +1.5 (medium). Better, deeper, healthier team is the dog. Embiid likely out, Drummond becomes starting center vs Towns. PG George is not a guy you build must-win around at this stage. NYK got 6-pt road win in G2 with banged-up OG/Hart playing heavy minutes.
• SAS -4.5 (low-medium, leans pass). Wemby/Castle/Vassell solving things schematically; Randle and Gobert can’t guard Wemby. If betting, this side; lean pass because road playoff -4.5 is historically coin-flip.
• Pass NHL × 2 (BUF puck line juice trap; VGK/ANA pickem with no situational edge), pass MLB (Darvish out muddies, guessing not betting).

The Bookmaker

• STL +132 BetRivers ML (medium). 23-cent SD ML spread = BetRivers liable on SD chalk after Darvish OUT news. Apple TV public locked in pre-news. Book juicing the favorite up rather than reshading the dog. +132 is +9 cents of value vs FD/DK.
• UNDER 6 BetMGM MTL/BUF (medium). Four books hung 5.5 with Over juice up; BetMGM hung 6 AND inverted juice (Over +100 / Under -120). When one book hangs a different total and inverts the juice, the sharps are on the side they’re protecting. Hook through 5.5 = 3-3 push protection.
• Pass VGK/ANA (BetRivers spread inversion = structural noise), pass NYK/PHI (Embiid news doing the work live), pass SAS/MIN (sharps already hit MIN, value gone).

Round 2 — Peer review (anonymized)

Mapping (revealed post-review): A=Contrarian, B=Sharp, C=Bookmaker, D=Quant, E=Situationalist.

1. NYK +1.5 vs PHI -1.5 — whose framework holds? E’s read is the soundest. A’s framing (“public is laying on PHI without Embiid”) is reflex; E names the matchup mechanism (Drummond on Towns, no PG George stabilizer, NYK won G2 road with same rotation). B’s PHI -1.5 read is the weakest — assumes “market expects Embiid back” without evidence; if Embiid is out, -106 is a trap price, not reverse line value. Lean-tier on NYK +1.5, sourced primarily from E.

2. MTL/BUF Under — triangulation or two costumes? Real triangulation, with one important caveat. C’s BetMGM read is structurally specific (different total + inverted juice = book advertising where they need action — independent signal from G1 score). A is doing recency-fade reflex; thin alone but pointed at the same conclusion. C’s number has the hook (3-3 push protection); A’s 5.5 doesn’t. Publish C’s version: Under 6 BetMGM (-120).

3. STL @ SD split. B’s SD -1.5 is number-shopping dressed as a play (B admits soft confidence). With Darvish OUT and bullpen as the variable, asking SD to win by 2+ is the wrong direction — run-line favorites need starter dominance. C’s framework (book exposure asymmetry) handles the case correctly. STL ML +132 BetRivers is the play; SD -1.5 is a pass.

4. VGK @ ANA — all five passed. Publish the Stay-Away explicitly. The BetRivers spread inversion is “books disagree, here’s why it matters” content the brand should surface. “No bet, but the inversion tells you the market has no consensus on who’s favored — that’s information, not noise.” Omitting it leaves the most interesting structural signal of the night on the floor.

Round 3 — Chairman + FratBro (parallel)

Chairman: Applied publishing thresholds.

• No Lean of the Day (no Consensus tier).
• Lean Plays: NYK +1.5 (2 advisors at med+, peer-review-supported); UNDER 6 MTL/BUF BetMGM (2 advisors at med+, peer-review-supported, peer specifically endorsed Bookmaker’s number/book).
• Watch-Only: STL +132 BetRivers (single-advisor + peer elevation, didn’t clear 2-advisor Lean threshold strict reading); UNDER 216.5 SAS/MIN (Contrarian solo, no peer elevation).
• Stay-Aways: VGK @ ANA spread (with the BetRivers inversion content surfaced); PHI -1.5; SAS -4.5; SD -1.5; BUF -1.5 puck line.

See cards/2026-05-08.md.

FratBro: 4-leg parlay (council stack: NYK +1.5, Under 6 MTL/BUF, SAS -4.5, BUF ML) at estimated +650; Padres SGP lottery ticket at estimated +900. No coordination with chairman.